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argument_from_plausibility
An argumentation scheme where a conclusion is supported by its fit with existing knowledge, common experience, and intuitive expectations. The argument is that among competing explanations, the most plausible one deserves provisional acceptance. This is legitimate abductive reasoning when plausibility is carefully assessed but weak when it relies on superficial intuition.
The most plausible explanation for the car not starting is a dead battery, given that the lights are dim and it is winter. Less plausible explanations (engine seizure, stolen starter motor) can be considered if the battery checks out.
The most plausible explanation for why the star witness suddenly changed their testimony is that they were pressured or offered a deal, given the pattern of prior inconsistencies and the timing of the change. A spontaneous memory recovery is far less plausible given the circumstances.
The most plausible explanation for the sudden drop in website traffic is the algorithm update the search engine rolled out last week, since the drop coincided precisely with the update's rollout and affected many similar sites. A coincidental server issue or mass user behavior change is considerably less plausible.
Binary (yes/no) questions an LLM must answer to identify this aspect:
Is a conclusion being supported by its plausibility or intuitive appeal?
Type: binaryIs the plausibility assessment based on consistency with known facts and common experience?
Type: binaryAre implausible alternatives being explicitly compared?
Type: binaryIs plausibility distinguished from proof?
Type: binaryAn argumentation scheme where a conclusion is supported by its fit with existing knowledge, common experience, and intuitive expectations. The argument is that among competing explanations, the most plausible one deserves provisional acceptance. This is legitimate abductive reasoning when plausibility is carefully assessed but weak when it relies on superficial intuition.
Plausibility reasoning is efficient and often accurate because it leverages accumulated knowledge and experience. It works as a starting point for investigation.
Plausibility is not proof. Demand evidence beyond intuitive fit. Consider that the most plausible explanation to one person may reflect their limited experience.
Medical differential diagnosis, detective work, scientific hypothesis selection, and everyday troubleshooting.
Use these tools to detect, analyze, or train this aspect.