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Argument from Plausibility

Also Known As: Abductive Argument Inference to the Best Explanation
Discourse Mechanics ID: argument_from_plausibility

Definition

An argumentation scheme where a conclusion is supported by its fit with existing knowledge, common experience, and intuitive expectations. The argument is that among competing explanations, the most plausible one deserves provisional acceptance. This is legitimate abductive reasoning when plausibility is carefully assessed but weak when it relies on superficial intuition.

Examples

The most plausible explanation for the car not starting is a dead battery, given that the lights are dim and it is winter. Less plausible explanations (engine seizure, stolen starter motor) can be considered if the battery checks out.

The most plausible explanation for why the star witness suddenly changed their testimony is that they were pressured or offered a deal, given the pattern of prior inconsistencies and the timing of the change. A spontaneous memory recovery is far less plausible given the circumstances.

The most plausible explanation for the sudden drop in website traffic is the algorithm update the search engine rolled out last week, since the drop coincided precisely with the update's rollout and affected many similar sites. A coincidental server issue or mass user behavior change is considerably less plausible.

Verification Steps
Verification Steps
Binary yes/no questions that an AI must answer to detect a reasoning pattern in a text.
Each of the 452 aspects has verification steps — simple yes/no questions designed to systematically detect whether a pattern appears in a text. For ad hominem: "Does the argument attack a person rather than their claim?" For false dichotomy: "Are only two options presented when more exist?" This ensures consistent, reproducible analysis.

Binary (yes/no) questions an LLM must answer to identify this aspect:

  1. 1

    Is a conclusion being supported by its plausibility or intuitive appeal?

    Type: binary
  2. 2

    Is the plausibility assessment based on consistency with known facts and common experience?

    Type: binary
  3. 3

    Are implausible alternatives being explicitly compared?

    Type: binary
  4. 4

    Is plausibility distinguished from proof?

    Type: binary
Deep Dive
The expandable detail section on each aspect page with examples, psychology, and counter-strategies.
The Deep Dive section provides in-depth information about each aspect: a real-world example showing the pattern in action, an explanation of why it works psychologically, practical advice on how to counter it, alternative names, and links to related aspects.