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Interpolation Error

Also Known As: Inter-point estimation error Smoothing assumption error
Statistical Error ID: interpolation_error

Definition

Interpolation error occurs when values between observed data points are estimated by assuming a particular functional relationship, such as a straight line or smooth curve, without sufficient evidence for that assumption. While generally safer than extrapolation, interpolation can still produce misleading results when the true relationship has features — such as peaks, thresholds, or discontinuities — that fall between measurement points and are therefore invisible.

Examples

A river's water level is measured at 6 AM and 6 PM, showing similar readings both times. Linear interpolation suggests a stable water level all day. In reality, a flash flood peaked at noon, causing severe but unrecorded flooding between measurements.

Air quality sensors in a city record pollution levels at 8 AM and 8 PM each day. Linear interpolation between these readings suggests moderate, stable pollution throughout the day. In reality, a sharp midday traffic peak causes pollution to spike to hazardous levels for several hours — a pattern entirely invisible to the interpolation.

A climate researcher has temperature proxy data from ice cores at roughly 500-year intervals. Connecting these points with straight lines implies gradual, continuous temperature change between measurements. However, abrupt century-scale warming events occurred between sample points and are completely smoothed away by the linear interpolation.

Verification Steps
Verification Steps
Binary yes/no questions that an AI must answer to detect a reasoning pattern in a text.
Each of the 452 aspects has verification steps — simple yes/no questions designed to systematically detect whether a pattern appears in a text. For ad hominem: "Does the argument attack a person rather than their claim?" For false dichotomy: "Are only two options presented when more exist?" This ensures consistent, reproducible analysis.

Binary (yes/no) questions an LLM must answer to identify this aspect:

  1. 1

    Are estimates being made between observed data points using an assumed functional form?

    Type: binary
  2. 2

    Is the assumed relationship between data points (e.g., linear, smooth) justified by evidence?

    Type: binary
  3. 3

    Could the true relationship have features (peaks, dips, discontinuities) between the observed points?

    Type: binary
  4. 4

    Are the data points spaced widely enough that important variation could be missed between them?

    Type: binary
Deep Dive
The expandable detail section on each aspect page with examples, psychology, and counter-strategies.
The Deep Dive section provides in-depth information about each aspect: a real-world example showing the pattern in action, an explanation of why it works psychologically, practical advice on how to counter it, alternative names, and links to related aspects.

Hierarchical Context