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neglect_of_probability
The tendency to disregard probability when making decisions under uncertainty, responding instead to the magnitude of outcomes. People treat small probabilities as either zero or much larger than they are, and fail to distinguish between different levels of low probability. This leads to both excessive fear of rare catastrophes and dismissal of moderate risks.
A person refuses to fly (annual risk of death approximately 1 in 11 million) but drives daily without concern (annual risk roughly 1 in 8,000). The vivid imagery of a plane crash overrides the actual probability assessment.
A parent refuses to let their child walk the two blocks to school alone, citing the terrifying (though extremely rare) possibility of stranger abduction — while routinely driving the same child on highways, which statistically poses a far greater risk of serious injury.
After reading a news story about a rare but gruesome reaction to a common vaccine, a healthy adult declines vaccination entirely. The vivid anecdote overrides the statistical reality that the risk of serious illness from the disease is orders of magnitude higher than the risk of the reaction.
Binary (yes/no) questions an LLM must answer to identify this aspect:
Are decisions based on worst-case or best-case outcomes without considering their likelihood?
Type: binaryIs the probability of an event ignored while its consequences dominate the reasoning?
Type: binaryWould the decision change if explicit probabilities were considered?
Type: binaryThe tendency to disregard probability when making decisions under uncertainty, responding instead to the magnitude of outcomes. People treat small probabilities as either zero or much larger than they are, and fail to distinguish between different levels of low probability. This leads to both excessive fear of rare catastrophes and dismissal of moderate risks.
Emotions respond to the possibility and vividness of outcomes rather than their probability. Once a negative outcome is imaginable, the emotional response is relatively insensitive to whether the probability is 1% or 0.001%.
Force yourself to put numbers on risks and compare them to baseline risks you already accept. Use frequency formats (e.g., '1 in 10,000') rather than percentages to make probabilities more intuitive.
This bias drives disproportionate fear of terrorism versus common dangers, influences insurance purchasing decisions, and shapes public policy responses to rare but dramatic events.
Use these tools to detect, analyze, or train this aspect.