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pessimism_bias
The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of negative events, particularly in contexts of depression, anxiety, or after negative experiences. While optimism bias is the default, pessimism bias emerges in specific emotional states and contexts, leading to excessive caution or paralysis.
After a business failure, an entrepreneur refuses to try again because they are convinced all future ventures will also fail, despite evidence that many successful entrepreneurs experienced early failures.
After going through a painful divorce, someone declines every subsequent date for years, convinced: 'All relationships end in hurt — there's no point in trying again.'
A student who failed one important exam becomes certain they will fail their entire degree, ignoring their previously strong academic record and the fact that one exam rarely determines overall outcomes.
Binary (yes/no) questions an LLM must answer to identify this aspect:
Is a prediction or assessment about future outcomes being made?
Type: binaryDoes the assessment systematically overestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes?
Type: binaryAre positive possibilities or successful base rates being ignored or downplayed?
Type: binaryThe tendency to overestimate the likelihood of negative events, particularly in contexts of depression, anxiety, or after negative experiences. While optimism bias is the default, pessimism bias emerges in specific emotional states and contexts, leading to excessive caution or paralysis.
Negative experiences are weighted more heavily due to loss aversion, and the emotional pain of failure creates a self-protective bias toward expecting the worst.
Calibrate expectations against actual base rates rather than personal emotional reactions. Distinguish between realistic caution and systematically biased pessimism.
Investment decisions during downturns, post-failure career decisions, health anxiety, and doomsday thinking in media consumption.
Use these tools to detect, analyze, or train this aspect.