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anchoring_bias
Anchoring bias is the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered (the 'anchor') when making subsequent judgments or decisions. Even arbitrary or irrelevant anchors can powerfully influence estimates, negotiations, and evaluations. Adjustment from the anchor is typically insufficient, leading to systematically skewed judgments.
A real estate agent shows a buyer an overpriced house first. Even though the buyer recognizes it is overpriced, subsequent houses that are merely somewhat overpriced seem like good deals by comparison.
A salary negotiation opens with the employer stating, 'We were thinking around $45,000.' Even though the candidate had researched a market rate of $60,000, they end up anchoring their counteroffer closer to $50,000 rather than firmly asserting the higher figure they had originally planned to request.
A supermarket labels a display '10 cans for $10,' and shoppers instinctively buy around 10 cans, even though there is no bulk discount and they would normally buy only 2 or 3 — the number '10' acts as an anchor for how many they should purchase.
Binary (yes/no) questions an LLM must answer to identify this aspect:
Is a specific initial value, number, or reference point introduced?
Type: binaryAre subsequent estimates or judgments clustered around this initial anchor?
Type: binaryIs the anchor potentially arbitrary or irrelevant to the actual question?
Type: binaryAnchoring bias is the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered (the 'anchor') when making subsequent judgments or decisions. Even arbitrary or irrelevant anchors can powerfully influence estimates, negotiations, and evaluations. Adjustment from the anchor is typically insufficient, leading to systematically skewed judgments.
The brain uses the anchor as a starting point and adjusts from it, but the adjustment is almost always insufficient because people stop adjusting once they reach a plausible value rather than the correct one. The anchor also selectively activates anchor-consistent information in memory.
Generate your own independent estimate before being exposed to others' numbers. In negotiations, consider multiple reference points and be aware that the first number mentioned will shape the entire discussion.
Anchoring is heavily exploited in pricing strategies (showing the 'original price' crossed out next to the sale price), salary negotiations, and legal damage awards where plaintiff demands influence jury decisions.
Assuming cause-and-effect because events are correlated or sequential (post hoc ergo propter hoc).
Preference for keeping things as they are (default effect).
Deciding using only quantitative metrics, discounting qualitative information.
Presenting only two options when many more exist.
Use these tools to detect, analyze, or train this aspect.